It's natural to ask, because open government has a history of failing expectations. Bureaucratic inertia. Politicians who turn cool on transparency once they hold power. Security concerns. Rules that make it devilishly difficult to adopt common tech practices in the public sector.
This time, though, there is such a convergence of forces that I'm betting on fundamental change. The biggest, of course, is a tech-savvy president who has promised transparent, connected and responsive government. But there are others:
- Society's expectation of interactivity. When even clumsy Comcast can build a pretty good customer-service website, then people are not going to be satisfied if they can't do business with their government online;
- An internal constituency. The individuals who make up the Federal Web Managers Roundtable are a very talented bunch who have been struggling to drag their agencies into the 20th century;
- Effective external pressure. Good groups have been working for years tracking money and politics and arguing for transparent government, but the Sunlight Foundation has had a huge impact in just two years by making grants quickly and effectively to groups that use technology to make government data comprehensible. They are taking advantage of another trend: The standardization of data, using XML, which makes it much easier to connect databases;
- Technology that's past the tipping point. A wealth of powerful communications and collaboration tools now take next to no technical expertise to use, removing a natural control point. That shifts the onus to management to explain why not to use them;
Of course, how fast and effectively this change comes about depends on the leadership the new administration brings to it; Obama needs to keep his promise of appointing a CTO with real power. Culturally, it is going to be uphill in Washington, where "most people don't know a server from a waiter," in the words of Sunlight's Ellen Miller.
Katherine Seelye provided a nice overview of the potential and challenges facing egovernment in this New York Times article, which includes a few instructive examples of egov forays in Europe.
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